4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 54

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(4:59) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.89 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 54, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 16, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP