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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 59

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(8:00) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to SEA 14, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 18-F.Swain. PENALTY on SEA-21-T.Flowers, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at SEA 14.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.59 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 59, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP