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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 69

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:58) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to SF 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-B.Aiyuk pushed ob at SF 29 for 10 yards (44-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 69, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP