Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 20 at the 79

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:20) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to SF 24, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 34 for 10 yards (26-R.Neal). PENALTY on SF-29-T.Hufanga, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 24.

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.01 EP
70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model