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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 40

Green Bay Packers 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:20) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to PIT 4, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-86-M.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.05 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model