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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Green Bay Packers
4th & 4 at the 35
Green Bay Packers 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10
What Actually Happened
(7:01) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Adams.
The Three Options
GO
+0.88 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.63 EP
- 53% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.55 EP
KICK
+0.59 EP
- 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
- 32% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT
-0.36 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
