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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 94

Green Bay Packers 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:43) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to PIT 37, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.79 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 94, worth -5.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 52, worth -2.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model