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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 42

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(14:24) 6-P.Harvin punts 37 yards to GB 5, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-48-D.Tuszka.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.45 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model