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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 32

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(2:40) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 22-N.Harris to GB 33 for -1 yards (42-O.Burks, 39-C.Sullivan). GB-23-J.Alexander was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.05 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model