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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 11

Green Bay Packers 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(9:35) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.11 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model