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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 8

Green Bay Packers 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(:08) 2-M.Crosby 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +4.72 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 8, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model