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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 75

New Orleans Saints 21 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(7:14) 4-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to NYG 20, Center-49-Z.Wood. 18-C.Board ran ob at NYG 46 for 26 yards (4-B.Gillikin).

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.90 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 75, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 32, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP