4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 47

New York Giants 10 – New Orleans Saints 21

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 9-R.Dixon punts 30 yards to NO 17, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.37 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model