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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 40

New Orleans Saints 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:35) 4-B.Gillikin punts 34 yards to NYG 6, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 21-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.53 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model