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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 70

New York Giants 10 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 9-R.Dixon punts 33 yards to NO 37, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-52-C.Coughlin.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.51 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 28, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP