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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 5

New York Giants 7 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 5-G.Gano 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 5, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP