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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 81

New York Giants 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(13:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to NO 38, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 11-D.Harris to NO 47 for 9 yards (31-K.Crossen).

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.65 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 81, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.69 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 38, worth -2.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model