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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 40

New Orleans Saints 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 6-A.Rosas 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.67 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.00 EP
What Happened
  • 59% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP