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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 18 at the 85

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to LAC 40, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.51 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.72 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -3.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 43, worth -3.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model