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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 36

Los Angeles Chargers 28 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 16-T.Vizcaino punts 32 yards to LV 4, Center-54-M.Overton. 44-N.Kwiatkoski to LV 10 for 6 yards (71-M.Feiler).

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +1.34 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EP