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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 50

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(9:24) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 87-J.Cook to LV 37 for 13 yards (52-D.Perryman).

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.69 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 50, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model