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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 34

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 21

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.08 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model