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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 48

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 1-T.Long punts 39 yards to LV 9, Center-54-M.Overton. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 14 for 5 yards (37-K.Hall).

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.37 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model