Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 54

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

(4:50) 1-T.Long punts 35 yards to LV 19, Center-54-M.Overton, downed by LAC-54-M.Overton.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.42 EP
70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 54, worth -2.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model