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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 55

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(6:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 87-J.Cook to LV 49 for 6 yards (24-J.Abram).

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.67 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 55, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model