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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 83

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to LAC 31, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 84-K.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.56 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 41, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP