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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 67

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:01) 6-A.Cole punts 56 yards to LAC 11, Center-47-T.Sieg. 84-K.Hill ran ob at LAC 20 for 9 yards (42-C.Littleton).

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.70 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP