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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 56

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:49) 1-T.Long punts 41 yards to LV 15, Center-54-M.Overton. 13-H.Renfrow MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at LV 15.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +3.08 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 56, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP