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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 37

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 28-J.Jacobs to LAC 37 for no gain (44-K.White).

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.33 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -0.45 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.07 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -3.42 EP
PUNT -1.05 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model