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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 82

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 1-T.Long punts 58 yards to LV 24, Center-54-M.Overton. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 41 for 17 yards (31-N.Niemann). PENALTY on LAC-31-N.Niemann, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at LV 41.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.65 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 82, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 40, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP