Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 59

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

(15:00) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to LAC 10, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 84-K.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.28 EP
65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model