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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 73

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(:36) 10-K.Huber punts 46 yards to JAX 27, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.13 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 73, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 31, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model