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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 25

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(5:25) 2-E.McPherson 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.03 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.74 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 35, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT +0.65 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model