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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 50

Jacksonville Jaguars 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to CIN 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.48 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 50, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model