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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 43

Detroit Lions 14 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(5:48) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown pushed ob at CHI 34 for 9 yards (4-E.Jackson). Penalty on CHI-91-E.Goldman, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.68 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -1.67 EP
KICK -0.07 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model