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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 15

Chicago Bears 21 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(:14) 2-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.40 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 15, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.52 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model