4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 71

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 3-J.Fox punts 54 yards to CHI 17, Center-47-S.Daly. 15-N.Webster to CHI 23 for 6 yards (39-J.Jacobs).

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.37 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 71, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 29, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP