Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 60

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 14

(:45) 3-J.Fox punts 56 yards to CHI 4, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-18-K.Hodge.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.86 EP
65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 60, worth -2.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model