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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 53

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(12:18) 32-D.Montgomery left guard to DET 44 for 9 yards (24-A.Oruwariye, 25-W.Harris).

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.18 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 53, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 15, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model