Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 93

Chicago Bears 14 – Detroit Lions 0

(8:10) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to DET 38, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-K.Raymond to DET 45 for 7 yards (81-J.Holtz).

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.55 EP
61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 93, worth -5.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model