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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 93

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(1:36) 4-S.Koch punts 55 yards to DEN 38, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 43 for 5 yards (16-T.Wallace).

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.05 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 93, worth -5.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -3.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 51, worth -3.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model