4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 52

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.51 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 52, worth -3.09 EP
KICK -2.03 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP