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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 47

Denver Broncos 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(7:47) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.65 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model