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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 2

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 9-J.Tucker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.03 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 2, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP