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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 67

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(9:16) 4-S.Koch punts 34 yards to DEN 33, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.70 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 25, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model