4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 89

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to DEN 47, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 9-K.Hinton.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.42 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 89, worth -5.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.61 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 46, worth -2.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.60 EP