4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 70

Denver Broncos 7 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(12:44) 6-S.Martin punts 68 yards to BAL 2, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-12-M.Ford.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 28, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model