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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 28

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(13:43) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.48 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 28, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 38, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model