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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 52

Denver Broncos 7 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 6-S.Martin punts 28 yards to BAL 24, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.00 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 52, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.69 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model