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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 19 at the 83

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(7:06) 4-S.Koch punts 57 yards to DEN 26, Center-46-N.Moore. 9-K.Hinton to DEN 35 for 9 yards (49-C.Board).

The Three Options

GO -3.20 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.73 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 83, worth -5.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 41, worth -2.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model